Note: Each interactive chart pulls its data from a CSV file in /public/data/.
Update those files or swap in your own API hooks to keep the visuals current.
Bitcoin’s meteoric rise has inspired a multitude of pricing frameworks - some grounded in scarcity economics, others in network theory or purely statistical trend-lines. Below we break down six of the most-referenced models, summarising their core idea, strengths, weaknesses, and what they indicate as of July 2025. Each model includes an interactive chart: click or tap to expand the view and inspect any date (up to 15 years into the future).
Stock-to-Flow (S2F) - PlanB
General idea
Treat Bitcoin like a mined commodity:
Price is proportional to (Total stock / New annual flow)^b
Halvings slash the annual flow, doubling the ratio every ~4 years and - per the model - ratcheting price higher.
Strengths
Elegant scarcity narrative that mirrors gold and silver.
Historically tracked broad cycle direction through 2020.
Cross-asset comparison may mix fundamentally different drivers.
Removes time, so targets lack falsifiable deadlines.
Current call
Still implies $300 k+ “fair value” for the current epoch - widely viewed as over-optimistic after 2024’s miss.
Power-Law Corridor - Harold Burger
General idea
Fit a straight line to log(price) vs. log(time); draw parallel rails +/- 2 sigma. Corridor widens, reflecting declining relative volatility.
Strengths
Purely empirical: no supply/demand assumptions.
Has contained every weekly close since 2010.
Simple upper/lower bounds aid risk management.
Weaknesses
Descriptive, not causal - breaks if adoption curve bends sharply.
Provides ranges not point targets; wide rails can feel vague.
Ignores halving cadence and macro shocks.
Current call
Top rail approximately $340 k and floor approximately $65 k by year-end 2025; after 2028, corridor never dips below $100 k.
Log-Regression “Rainbow” Chart
General idea
A long-term log curve with colored +/- sigma bands (blue = cheap, red = bubble). Popularised by BlockchainCenter as a playful sentiment gauge.
Strengths
Quick visual cue for over/under-valuation zones.
Historically captured cycle tops (red) and bottoms (blue).
Continuously updated and easy to grasp for newcomers.
Weaknesses
Explicitly “for fun” - no economic mechanism.
Bands retro-fit past data; could fail if growth path shifts.
Offers sentiment zones, not precise forecasts.
Current call
BTC hovers in the orange “FOMO” band (~$120 k); red “Maximum Bubble” doesn’t start until ~$250 k on the 2025 band.
Metcalfe-Law / Network-Value Model
General idea
Market-cap is proportional to (active addresses)². Applies Metcalfe’s Law of network effects: more users implies disproportionate increase in value.
Strengths
Anchors valuation to actual adoption metrics.
Historically strong correlation between address growth & price.
Offers adoption-driven forecasts out to decades.
Weaknesses
Address count does not equal unique users; batching & L2s distort data.
Assumes exponential user growth continues unabated.
Still omits macro cycles and regulation shocks.
Current call
With ~1.3 m daily active addresses, model midpoint approximately $160 k +/- 40% - suggesting spot price is modestly discounted.
Four-Year Halving / Cycle-Repeat Model
General idea
Bitcoin’s 210,000-block halving cuts miner supply every ~4 years, historically triggering a boom-bust rhythm. Analysts overlay current price on prior cycles to estimate the next peak & draw-down.
Strengths
Simple narrative tying price to programmed scarcity shock.
Institutional flows & ETFs may dampen or shift the rhythm.
Peaks & troughs vary; model gives rough timing, not values.
Current call
ARK Invest’s composite points to a cycle peak ~$240 k +/- in late 2025, then a typical ~80% draw-down into 2026-27.
Take-aways
No single model is gospel. S2F/S2FX lean on fixed supply; Metcalfe on adoption; Rainbow & Power-Law on empirical fits; Halving Cycle on recurring sentiment waves.
Blend lenses for a range, not a point. As of mid-2025 the composite cluster across models sits roughly $200 k - $300 k for the halving epoch, yet individual forecasts vary wildly.
Expect deviation. Macro events, regulatory pivots, or technology breakthroughs can shove price far outside any model’s path - sometimes for years. Use these frameworks as context, not certainty.
