The Cycles of Collapse: How Elite Overproduction Drives Societies Toward Crisis
TL;DR – Throughout history, complex societies follow predictable patterns of collapse. When the “wealth pump” transfers riches from workers to elites for too long, it creates popular immiseration (the masses getting poorer) and elite overproduction (too many educated people competing for limited power positions). This explosive combination has toppled dynasties from Imperial China to Medieval France—and America’s 2020s crisis shows all the same warning signs.
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” — George Santayana
This article examines five critical cases where elite overproduction led to societal breakdown. The parallels are striking—and sobering.
Introduction: Understanding the Pattern
In his 2023 book End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, complexity scientist Peter Turchin presents a disturbing thesis: throughout history, complex societies follow predictable cycles of collapse driven by two converging forces—popular immiseration (the masses becoming poorer) and elite overproduction (too many educated people competing for limited positions of power).
This pattern has repeated across civilizations and centuries. When the “wealth pump” transfers riches from workers to elites for too long, it creates an explosive situation: the immiserated masses provide the raw energy for change, while frustrated elite aspirants—educated, capable, but systematically excluded from power—provide the organization and leadership to channel that energy against the established order.
This is not merely historical curiosity. America is currently experiencing this cycle in real time. Turchin’s structural-demographic models, which predicted America’s peak political instability around 2020, have proven remarkably prescient. The January 6th Capitol riot, widespread political violence, unprecedented polarization, and institutional breakdown all align with the warning signs that preceded previous crises.
Turchin’s 2010 Prediction: Using his cliodynamic models, Turchin predicted that America would experience peak political instability around 2020. Events like the January 6th Capitol riot, widespread protests, and unprecedented polarization have proven him remarkably accurate.
The interactive timeline below examines five critical historical cases where elite overproduction led to societal breakdown: Imperial China’s Qing Dynasty collapse (1850-1864), Medieval France’s Wars of Religion (1562-1598), the French Revolution (1789-1799), America’s Civil War era (1850s-1865), and our current moment in 2020s America. Each case demonstrates the same iron law: when societies allow wealth to concentrate at the top while producing too many educated elites competing for limited positions of power, the result is political crisis, violence, and often collapse.
The Five Eras at a Glance
How to navigate: Click any era row to switch to that case study, or click individual stage segments to jump directly to specific stages. The timeline stays fixed at the top as you scroll.
🏯 Imperial China: The Qing Dynasty
Initial Conditions: Population Explosion
China’s population underwent unprecedented growth during the early Qing period, creating demographic pressures that would eventually destabilize the empire.
160 million people in 1679 → Over 400 million by 1851
Remained static throughout the entire period—no expansion to match population growth
The Wealth Pump Activates
As population grew, land became scarce and competition intensified. Wealthy merchants and landowners prospered while the masses struggled.
Wealthy merchants prospered from low wages and high grain prices
Common people faced declining land per capita and growing inequality
Elite Overproduction: The Examination Crisis
The civil service examination system—once a path to meritocratic advancement—became impossibly competitive as more people sought elite status.
2,500 candidates competing → 6.4% passing rate
6,000 candidates competing → 3.5% passing rate
Only 1 in 3,000 shengyuan (basic degree holders) would ever become a jinshi (highest degree)
Thousands of highly educated men studied for years, sometimes decades, only to fail repeatedly. They had the knowledge to organize and lead—but nowhere to go.
Frustrated Elite Aspirants Emerge
Repeated failures in the examination system created a class of highly educated, capable individuals who felt entitled to power but were systematically excluded.
Failed civil service exam 4 times
Failed civil service exam 5 times
Almost all highest-ranked Taiping leaders had failed the civil examinations multiple times
These educated failures acquired organizational skills and knowledge of governance during their years of study—skills they would use to challenge the system that rejected them.
Crisis: The Taiping Rebellion
The Explosion (1850-1864)
Duration: 14 years
Scope: Ravaged 17 provinces
Death Toll: Approximately 20 million lives lost—one of the deadliest civil wars in human history
Leadership: Led by failed examination candidates who mobilized the immiserated masses with a new religious ideology mixing Christianity and Chinese traditions
The frustrated elite aspirants provided organization and ideology, while the suffering masses provided the manpower. Together, they nearly toppled the Qing dynasty.
Outcome: Permanent Weakening
The Aftermath
The Qing dynasty survived the Taiping Rebellion but was so weakened it never again established effective control over China. The dynasty finally collapsed in the early 20th century, unable to recover from the damage.
The pattern was set: a rigid system that couldn’t absorb its educated elite led directly to violent upheaval and ultimate state collapse.
⚜️ Medieval France: The Wars of Religion
Initial Conditions: Malthusian Pressure
Like China, France experienced massive population growth that strained the social order and set the stage for crisis.
Massive growth between 1450-1560 led to overpopulation
Declining land per peasant, inflation of food prices, falling wages, growing rents
The Wealth Pump: Land-Owning Elites Prosper
While commoners suffered, land-owning nobles thrived as the products of land increased in value while labor became cheap.
Land-owning elites prospered as grain prices increased while labor costs decreased
Wealthy farmers and merchants accumulated substantial wealth and aspired to translate it into elite status
Elite Overproduction: Too Many Nobles
Two processes drove the multiplication of the French nobility: wealthy commoners buying titles, and noble families subdividing estates among multiple sons.
Noble population increased, but slower than commoners → Noble/commoner ratio: 1.5%
Commoner population stagnated while noble numbers increased → Noble/commoner ratio: 3% (doubled!)
The highest stratum (pairs laïques—lay peers) tripled between 1505 and 1588
Example: François de la Trémoille (1502-42), one of the richest French magnates, had to provide substantial inheritances for five sons—multiplying noble families and intensifying competition.
Intensifying Intraelite Competition
As noble numbers exploded, competition for wealth and status became cutthroat—literally.
Dueling had almost disappeared in the 15th and early 16th centuries. Under François I and Henri II, it exploded as a measure of intensifying elite violence and competition for honor.
Elite families divided into rival factions (Montmorency vs. Guise), each seeking dominance
State Fiscal Collapse
The French state, struggling to maintain control and fund military campaigns, spiraled into unsustainable debt.
296 million livres—four times greater than total state revenue
For context, the U.S. debt-to-revenue ratio today is about 7.4—France’s was already catastrophic before the full crisis hit
The Crown pawned royal jewels, sold church property, and debased currency—desperate measures that proved insufficient.
Crisis: The French Wars of Religion
The Explosion (1562-1598)
Surface Cause: Religious tensions between Catholics and Protestants
Deep Cause: Popular immiseration, elite overproduction, intraelite conflict, and state fiscal collapse
Result: State collapse and civil wars with major bloodletting of the nobility. Rival elite factions mobilized religious differences to fight for control of a crumbling state.
Famous Event: St. Bartholomew’s Day Massacre (1572)—organized violence orchestrated by counter-elites
Outcome: Long-Term Instability
The Aftermath
The Wars of Religion devastated France and led to prolonged instability. The structural problems were never fully resolved, setting the stage for the French Revolution nearly 200 years later—another explosion of elite overproduction and popular immiseration.
🗡️ The French Revolution
France's Second Crisis: Nearly 200 Years Later
Nearly two centuries after the Wars of Religion, France experienced another catastrophic crisis driven by the same fundamental forces: elite overproduction and popular immiseration.
France recovered from the Wars of Religion (1598) only to build toward another crisis by the late 1700s
The same structural forces—wealth concentration, elite multiplication, and mass suffering—converged once again
The Ancien RĂ©gime: A System Ripe for Collapse
By the 1780s, France’s social structure had become dangerously unstable, with rigid class divisions and extreme inequality.
130,000 people controlling vast wealth and land, paying almost no taxes
~400,000 nobles with hereditary privileges, tax exemptions, and monopolies on high offices
~27 million people bearing the tax burden—from wealthy merchants to starving peasants
The problem: wealthy merchants and educated bourgeoisie within the Third Estate had money and education but were systematically excluded from power and status.
Elite Overproduction: The Rising Bourgeoisie
A new class of educated, wealthy individuals emerged who aspired to elite status but found their path blocked by hereditary privilege.
Government positions could be purchased, creating a market for status—by 1789, there were ~50,000 venal offices
Lawyers and educated professionals multiplied, but opportunities remained limited by hereditary privilege
Growing numbers of writers, philosophers, and educated men (the “philosophes”) who couldn’t access real power
The bourgeoisie had wealth and education—but the aristocracy controlled political power and social prestige through birth, not merit.
Popular Immiseration: Famine and Economic Crisis
While elites competed for power, the masses faced catastrophic economic conditions that created revolutionary tinder.
Poor harvest led to bread prices doubling—bread consumed 50% of a worker’s income, now took 88%
Economic downturn created mass unemployment in cities, particularly Paris
Peasants and workers paid crushing taxes while nobility and clergy were exempt
France spent 50% of budget on debt service, forcing King Louis XVI to call the Estates-General for the first time since 1614
Intra-Elite Conflict: Old Aristocracy vs. New Elites
The crisis emerged when different elite factions—old aristocracy, wealthy bourgeoisie, reform-minded nobles—fought for control.
Aristocracy and part of clergy vs. rising city merchant class and educated bourgeoisie
Conflict over voting procedure exposed fundamental elite divisions—vote by order (favoring aristocracy) vs. vote by head (favoring Third Estate)
Some aristocrats (like Marquis de Lafayette) sided with reform, fracturing elite unity further
Counter-Elite Leadership: Lawyers and Journalists
The revolution was led not by starving peasants, but by educated, frustrated elite aspirants from the bourgeoisie who mobilized popular rage.
Lawyer from Arras—educated elite aspirant who became architect of the Terror
Journalist and physician—educated intellectual who channeled popular fury through his newspaper
Lawyer—another legal professional turned revolutionary leader
Journalist and lawyer—educated bourgeois who helped spark the Bastille storming with his speeches
Pattern: These were educated men locked out of real power by the hereditary system. They had the skills to organize and the grievances to motivate them.
The Explosion: From Bastille to Terror
Revolutionary Timeline
July 14, 1789: Storming of the Bastille—symbolic beginning of revolution
August 1789: Abolition of feudalism and Declaration of Rights of Man
1791-92: Failed constitutional monarchy; France declares war on Austria
August 1792: Monarchy overthrown; First Republic declared
January 1793: King Louis XVI executed by guillotine
1793-94: The Terror—40,000+ executed, including Marie Antoinette and many revolutionary leaders themselves
1799: Napoleon’s coup ends the Revolution
1803-1815: Napoleonic Wars export revolution across Europe
The frustrated elite aspirants (lawyers, journalists) provided organization and ideology, while the immiserated masses (starving workers, indebted peasants) provided the raw energy and violence.
The Terror: When Counter-Elites Turn on Each Other
A distinctive feature of the French Revolution: the counter-elites eventually consumed themselves in internal power struggles.
Danton executed by Robespierre (April 1794), then Robespierre himself executed (July 1794)
Revolutionary tribunal became a mechanism for intra-elite purges
Approximately 40,000 executed during the Terror, plus 200,000-400,000 killed in civil wars (Vendée uprising)
This illustrates how revolutionary situations, once unleashed, are difficult to control even by those who started them.
Outcome: Napoleon and New Elite Settlement
The Aftermath
Napoleon’s Rise (1799-1815): A military strongman emerged to restore order, channeling revolutionary energy into external conquest
New Elite Structure: Napoleon created a new aristocracy based on merit (not birth), the “noblesse d’empire”—resolving elite overproduction by expanding elite positions through conquest
Napoleonic Code: Codified revolutionary principles (equality before law, property rights) while restoring authoritarian order
Long-Term Impact: Old regime permanently destroyed; merit-based advancement established; but France experienced continued instability (1830 Revolution, 1848 Revolution, Paris Commune 1871) as structural issues persisted
Turchin’s Insight: Even the ancien régime nobility couldn’t imagine that in 1789 they would be put under the guillotine—just as antebellum Americans couldn’t imagine 600,000 dead in civil war. “It is typical that we cannot fully see the possible nastiness of a situation before it unfurls.”
Lessons: What Makes the French Revolution Distinctive
The French Revolution demonstrates several unique aspects of elite overproduction crises:
Unlike China or the Wars of Religion, this revolution was explicitly about Enlightenment ideas—liberty, equality, fraternity
Not just a dynasty change, but complete demolition of social structure (estates system abolished)
France’s crisis spread across Europe through Napoleonic conquests, affecting the entire continent
Created modern political concepts: left/right divide, nationalism, popular sovereignty, secular state
France experienced the cycle TWICE—Wars of Religion (1562-98) then French Revolution (1789)—showing how societies can build toward crisis repeatedly if structural forces aren’t addressed
🦅 The American Civil War Era
Initial Conditions: A Growing Republic
By the 1850s, the United States was a vibrant democracy undergoing rapid expansion—but beneath the surface, structural tensions were building.
A decent democracy with vibrant participation (though limited to white males)
Growing numbers of educated elite families in both North and South vying for national control
Mounting Inequality: North vs. South
The “wealth pump” operated differently in each region, but both experienced mounting inequality that fueled discontent.
Extreme inequality in the slaveholding South, with wealth concentrated among plantation owners
Industrialization created new fortunes for Northern industrialists while workers faced harsh conditions
Popular discontent led to urban riots in the years before the Civil War—similar to what happened before previous crises
Elite Overproduction and Competition
Educated elite families proliferated in both regions, creating fierce competition for control of national institutions—particularly the federal government.
Growing numbers of educated elites seeking positions in government, law, and business
Number of key federal positions (presidency, Congress, Supreme Court) remained relatively static
Escalating Intraelite Conflict
The level of antagonism between Northern and Southern elites reached unprecedented levels, breaking down the norms of civilized political discourse.
Incidents of physical violence erupted in the halls of Congress as sectional tensions escalated
Northern industrialists and Southern plantation owners developed irreconcilable visions for the nation’s future
Both sides mobilized their supporters among the masses, framing the conflict as existential
Crisis: The Civil War
The Explosion (1861-1865)
Duration: 4 years of the bloodiest conflict in American history
Death Toll: Over 600,000 killed—more than all other American wars combined at that time
Pattern: Educated elite families from both regions led their populations into catastrophic conflict when competition for national power reached its breaking point
Result: The Union preserved, but at enormous cost in lives and treasure
The Broader Wave of Violence
The Civil War was the peak, but violence extended far beyond 1865.
An entire era of elevated political violence—not just the 1860s
Race riots in 1919 killed hundreds; anarchist bombings; armed miner insurrections; widespread labor violence
Violence only truly subsided after 1930s, with the New Deal reforms addressing structural inequalities
Outcome: Resolution Through Reform
The Aftermath
Unlike previous cases, America eventually found a path out of the crisis through the New Deal (1930s-1940s) and post-WWII reforms.
The Solution: Economic redistribution, stronger labor unions, high taxes on the wealthy, and expanding the middle class reduced both popular immiseration and elite overproduction.
The Result: From 1950-1970, America enjoyed unprecedented political stability and widely shared prosperity—what Turchin calls an “integrative phase.”
The Lesson: Violent resolution is not inevitable—societies can reform themselves if elites act wisely.
đź—˝ America Today: The 2020s Crisis
Initial Conditions: The 1970s Turning Point
After decades of shared prosperity, America hit a turning point in the 1970s. Nearly 40 different social indicators began moving in worrying directions simultaneously.
In the late 1970s, the “wealth pump” was turned on—productivity and wages, which had risen together for decades, suddenly decoupled
Worker productivity continued to rise, but real wages stagnated or fell for most Americans
In 2010, Peter Turchin predicted America would experience peak political instability and violence in the 2020s based on these trends. He was right.
The Wealth Pump: Extreme Inequality Returns
Over 40+ years, wealth has been systematically transferred from workers to the top, recreating the conditions that preceded previous crises.
Real wages fell from $19.25/hour (1976) to $18.57/hour (2016)
Real wages fell from $15.50/hour (1976) to $13.66/hour (2016)
Americans without a four-year college degree (64% of the population) have been losing ground in absolute terms
Households worth $10+ million grew from 66,000 (1983) to 350,000 (2010)—more than 5x increase
By 2019, 10% of U.S. households were millionaires—693,000 households worth $10M+ (a tenfold increase since 1983)
Elite Overproduction: Too Many Credentialed Aspirants
America has produced far more highly educated individuals than there are elite positions to absorb them, creating a massive class of frustrated aspirants.
34% of Americans now have college degrees—the highest proportion ever
Number of lawyers tripled from 400,000 (mid-1970s) to 1.2 million (2011)
Cost of higher education has ballooned faster than inflation for 30-40 years due to massive demand
Many well-educated Millennials are unemployed, underemployed, or not achieving the high status they expected
Occupy Wall Street (2011)—over 1/3 of demonstrators had annual earnings well above poverty line; these were educated elites feeling aggrieved
Extreme Political Polarization
As elite competition intensifies, cooperation breaks down and political parties fragment—exactly as in previous crises.
Split into Traditional Republicans, Tea Party Republicans, and Trump Populists—divisions so deep that many refused to endorse Trump in 2016
Major fault line between Bernie Sanders’ Democratic Socialists and Establishment Democrats (Obama/Clinton wing)
Party polarization in Congress has reached levels not seen since the Civil War era
Social norms regulating political discourse and process have unraveled
The pandemic response became a tool for intra-elite conflict, with different factions using public health measures to attack opponents. Those questioning official narratives or alternative treatments were systematically villainized as political enemies rather than engaged as legitimate voices. This weaponization of crisis response mirrors historical patterns where elites use external threats to consolidate power and eliminate rivals.
Counter-Elite Mobilization
Frustrated elite aspirants are organizing counter-movements and channeling popular discontent—the classic precursor to revolution or civil war.
Donald Trump, Steve Bannon, Tucker Carlson, and JD Vance identified as “classic counter-elite types” by Turchin
Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) movement
Educated, capable individuals locked out of establishment power structures mobilizing popular resentment to challenge the status quo
Turchin’s assessment: Trump’s rise is not the cause of America’s crisis—it’s a symptom of the deeper structural drivers that have been building since the 1970s.
Crisis Events: The 2020s Explosion
The Current Crisis
2020: COVID-19 pandemic [?] [?] [?] —intensified polarization as elite factions weaponized public health measures for political gain; pharmaceutical companies granted legal immunity under emergency use authorization, creating perverse incentives to suppress alternative treatments
2020: George Floyd protests [?] [?] [?] [?] —months-long urban demonstrations, some turning violent; 25 people killed in political violence; elite factions used the tragedy to mobilize political support while media systematically downplayed destruction and violence
January 6, 2021: Capitol riot [?] —first breach of the U.S. Capitol since the War of 1812
2024: Trump returns to power after losing 2020 election—unprecedented in modern American history
2025: Continued political polarization; institutional trust at all-time lows; National Guard deployments for immigration enforcement
November 2025 Development: Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old democratic socialist, elected Mayor of New York City—defeating former Governor Andrew Cuomo and becoming the first Muslim, South Asian, and youngest mayor in over a century. His campaign mobilized young, educated, economically frustrated voters with promises of rent freezes, universal childcare, and free bus service. This represents exactly the counter-elite mobilization pattern Turchin describes.
Current Status: Revolutionary Situation
According to Turchin, America is in a “revolutionary situation”—the structural conditions for major upheaval are in place.
“The structural drivers—the wealth pump, popular immiseration, and elite overproduction/conflict—are still running hot. Unfortunately, all these trends are only gaining power.”
Artificial intelligence is eliminating professional jobs (lawyers, analysts), further reducing elite positions and intensifying competition
Efforts to reduce federal workforce (e.g., USAID cuts) further shrink available elite positions
Growing national debt and political gridlock over taxation mirror the state fiscal crises in previous cases
Possible Outcomes: Two Paths Forward
Path 1: Continued Violence and Possible Breakdown
If structural drivers are not addressed, Turchin predicts continued escalation through the 2020s, potentially including:
- Increased political violence
- Further state breakdown and institutional decay
- Possible revolution or civil conflict
- Resolution not expected until 2030s at earliest
Path 2: Reform and Soft Landing
History shows non-violent resolution is possible if elites act wisely:
- Economic Redistribution: More progressive taxation, stronger labor unions, higher minimum wage ($15/hour as a start)
- Education Reform: Stop expanding higher education beyond economy’s ability to absorb graduates
- Elite Self-Restraint: Established elites voluntarily reducing inequality and opening pathways for frustrated aspirants
- Addressing Labor Oversupply: Policies that empower workers and raise wages
Historical Examples: England’s Chartist Period (1819-1867), Russia’s Reform Period (1855-1881), and America’s New Deal (1930s-1940s) all succeeded in defusing revolutionary situations through timely reform.
The choice between these paths is being made right now. The 2020s will determine whether America follows the path of violent rupture or managed reform. History suggests we are at a critical juncture—and the clock is ticking.
Conclusion: The Lesson of History
Every case study demonstrates the same iron law: when societies allow wealth to concentrate at the top while producing too many educated elites competing for limited positions of power, the result is political crisis, violence, and often collapse.
The Warning Signs Are Clear
- ✅ Wealth Pump Operating: Check — 40+ years of rising inequality
- ✅ Popular Immiseration: Check — Real wages down for 64% of Americans
- ✅ Elite Overproduction: Check — 34% college grads, lawyer tripling, underemployment
- ✅ Political Polarization: Check — Worst since Civil War era
- ✅ Counter-Elite Mobilization: Check — Trump, Sanders, AOC, Mamdani
- ✅ Violence/Crisis Events: Check — 2020 protests, Jan 6, institutional breakdown
All Six Warning Signs Are Present
According to Turchin’s models, when all these indicators align, societies become “locked in a death spiral it’s very hard to exit.” We are in that spiral now.
The Choice Before Us
History offers two lessons:
The Bad News: Most societies that reach this point experience significant violence and upheaval. The momentum is difficult to stop once it builds.
The Good News: Non-violent resolution through reform is possible—but it requires elites to act against their short-term interests for long-term survival.
The True Question:
It’s not whether we’re in a crisis — we clearly are.
It’s not whether the pattern is real — history proves it is.
The question is: Will we learn from history, or repeat it?
The 2020s will determine whether America follows the path of violent rupture like Imperial China and Medieval France, or managed reform like our own New Deal era.
The clock is ticking. The choice is ours.
Further Reading
- Turchin, Peter. End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration. Penguin Press, 2023.
- Turchin, Peter. Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History. 2016.
- Goldstone, Jack A. Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern World. 1991.
- Turchin’s Blog: peterturchin.com
- Seshat: Global History Databank: Historical data used in cliodynamic analysis